Don't Let the Polls Fool You Again!

Historic polling "errors" in 2016 & 2020 grossly underestimated Trump's popularity with voters. The pollsters are up to their same old tricks in 2024. Don't be fooled!

Political polls are supposed to inform people of the prevailing support for particular candidates or positions among the people of this Country. Unfortunately, in recent years, political polling turned into yet another weapon wielded by Fake News Media to manipulate public opinion to help the Democrats. Today, political polls are often used to try to influence, shape or manipulate public opinion, rather than report on it. The same is true with respect to political prediction models. The use of polling and prediction models to influence public opinion is particularly prevalent in the Trump era.

A brief review of political polling errors and prediction model errors in both national elections in 2016 & 2020 proves the point.

(For those interested in a deeper dive into the polling propaganda in 2016 & 2020, here is a link to my book Fake News Exposed about Trump, Volume One. Chapters One & Two cover these issues comprehensively.)

Let’s Start with 2016 Prediction Models

The New York Times gave Hillary Clinton an 85% chance of winning the 2016 election based on its polling data as of November 8, 2016.

The Princeton Election Consortium placed Hillary Clinton’s probability of being elected President at 99% as of November 6, 2016.

On November 2, 2016, only days before the election, Moody's Analytics predicted an “easy” win for Hillary Clinton:

There are quite a few more prediction models which forecast Hillary Clinton sailing to an easy, and impressive, victory in the 2016 Presidential Election, but these prove the point. The prediction models were off. They were WAY off. And the “errors” all favored Hillary Clinton.

The 2016 Political Polling

The political polling in 2016, including those polling results published shortly before Election Day, were also wildly skewed in Hillary Clinton’s favor. A review of results from a handful of States will inform readers. The table below outlines these results:

FLORIDA in 2016

The Survey Monkey Florida poll had Hillary Clinton up 9 points over Donald Trump (51% to 42%) the day before the election.

The Quinnipac University Florida poll had Hillary Clinton up by 1 point the day before the election.

The result? Donald Trump won Florida in 2016 by 1.3%.

NEW HAMPSHIRE in 2016

The Survey Monkey New Hampshire poll had Hillary Clinton up 12 points over Donald Trump the day before the election:

Meanwhile, the UNH/WMUR poll, which is also listed in the screenshot above, had Clinton up by 11 points as of November 6, 2016, only two days before the election.

The result? Hillary Clinton did “win” New Hampshire in 2016, but only by 2,732 votes or two-tenths of one percent, not by 11 or 12%.