Will Donald J. Trump Win the 2024 Presidential Election?

Yes, he will. Here are a few reasons why.

The million-dollar question on everyone’s mind is: Will Trump win the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election? Today, I offer my “two cents” on this question. Trump will win. Virtually all of the indicators point to a resounding Trump victory. Here are a few of them.

Polling Data

As I wrote about in a last month, Trump is polling several points ahead of his performances in 2016 and 2020, while VP Harris lags behind both Joseph R. Biden’s polling in 2020 and Hillary Clinton’s in 2016.

Since that article came out on October 16, 2024, Trump’s poll numbers improved even more.  In fact, Trump now holds his first lead ever in the Real Clear Politics polling average:

Former President Trump never held a lead in the RCP Average in either 2016 or 2020. 

Pay close attention to the “This Day in History” data listed above and you will see on November 2, 2020, Joseph R. Biden polled 7.8% ahead of Trump, while in 2016, Hillary Clinton polled 1.5% ahead of Trump (down from 4.6% on October 29, 2016).  Yet, the RCP Averages tend to understate Trump’s.  He lost the national popular vote to Biden in 2020 by 4.5%, not 7.8%.

Former President Trump is well positioned to win the national popular vote.  Remember, however, the national popular vote does not determine the winner.  Winning the electoral college is what matters. Trump is well positioned to win the Electoral College as well.

The Electoral College

Once again, the Electoral College is decided by each state.  The number of electors from each state is equal to the combined number of US Representatives and US Senators from each state.  These are awarded by 50 state elections.  The “swing states” are the states which might be won by either candidate.  As I noted in my article on October 16, former President Trump is polling much better against VP Harris than he did against Biden or Clinton.

I won’t belabor all of those points.  If you need to refresh your memory, just go back and read my October 16 substack article.  Trump is in good shape in the swing states. Let’s take a quick look at the updated data.