What is the Truth about the Current Presidential Polling?
Don't get overconfident or complacent, but the 2024 polling data looks good for former President Trump
Fake News Media is working overtime telling the American people the 2024 Presidential Election is a “close race.” NBC News says the race is a “dead heat.” The New York Times recently proclaimed “A Close Race Gets Closer.” Vanity Fair says the 2024 Presidential race is the “closest in 60 years.” But, in truth, how close is the race? A comparison to this year’s Presidential State polling to the same date in 2020 and 2016, show the race is not as close as the Fake News Media wants you to believe.
Fortunately, Real Clear Polling gives us a “real clear” picture (pardon the pun), by aggregating many of the existing polls and giving us an average of national polls and the more important State-by-State polls. (Remember, under the United States Constitution, the Electoral College selects the President through 50 State elections. Who wins each State dictates who gets that State’s electors. The national popular vote simply does not matter.) How is Donald Trump faring this time around? The polling data tells us he is doing quite well and is running several percentage points ahead of 2020 and 2016. (Stated another way, VP Harris is running several points behind Hillary Clinton in 2016 and Joe Biden in 2020.)
Let’s begin by looking at some battleground States.
(When viewing polling, ALWAYS KEEP in mind the legacy media polling usually UNDERSTATES Trump’s, as I wrote about in a recent article and in one of my books.)
PENNSYLVANIA
As of October 15, 2024, the RCP Average shows Donald J. Trump up in Pennsylvania by .3 % with 48.3% for Trump and 48.00% for Harris. Here is what the Pennsylvania polling looks like right now at RCP:
That does seem close, doesn’t it? But, how did the polling look in Pennsylvania on October 15, 2020 or October 15, 2016? Well, not nearly so good for Trump. Again, from Real Clear Polling:
President Trump WON Pennsylvania by just over 1 percent, despite the fact polls showed Hillary Clinton up by 8.2% only weeks before the election. In 2020 Joseph R. Biden “won” Pennsylvania by just over 80,000 votes, despite polls showing Biden leading in Pennsylvania by 6.4% on this date in 2020.
WISCONSIN
As of October 15, 2024, the RCP polling average for Wisconsin shows VP Harris up by .3% or 48.3% to Trump’s 48.00%. Here is what the Wisconsin polling looks like currently at RCP:
How did the Wisconsin Presidential polling look on this date in 2016 & 2020? You guessed it:
VP Kamala Harris is running 6% behind Biden in 2020 and 5.7% behind Clinton in 2016.
Keep in mind, then candidate Trump won Wisconsin in 2016 by just over 27,000 votes (despite the fact the polls all had him down by nearly 6 points), while Biden “won” Wisconsin in 2020 by just over 20,000 votes, though the polling indicated he would win by over 5 times that margin.
MICHIGAN
As of October 15, 2024, the RCP polling average for Michigan shows former President Trump up by 1% or 48.4% to 47.4% for Harris. Here is what the Michigan polling looks like currently at RCP:
How did the polling in Michigan look in 2016 & 2020? It looked much better for the Democrats at this point in both election cycles:
Harris/Walz are running 8.2% behind Biden in 2020 in Michigan and 12.4% behind Clinton in Michigan in 2016. Of course, President Trump won Michigan in 2016 by just under 12,000 votes.
As distinguished (and accurate) pollster Rich Baris noted on social media platform X on October 14, 2024:
The polling data from virtually every battleground State (from North Carolina to Arizona to Nevada) tells the same tale: the Harris/Walz campaign is running BEHIND Clinton in 2016 and Biden in 2020, while Trump is running ahead of his polling in those years.
NATIONAL POLLING
What about the National polls? How do those compare? The 2024 National polling compared to 2016 & 2020 follows the same pattern: Kamala Harris runs behind Biden in 2020 and Clinton in 2016.
Here is what the RCP average of National polls looks like as of October 15, 2024:
How did the National polling look in 2020 & 2016?
Kamala Harris is up according to the RCP average of National polls by 1.3%. But that is over 8% behind where Biden polled on the same date in 2020 and 5.4% behind where Clinton polled nationally on the same date in 2016.
By virtually every metric, Kamala Harris is running well behind both Joseph Biden and Hillary Clinton in their races against Trump. That is the message everyone in America should get from the polling data and what responsible media would report. But, don’t hold your breath waiting for the Fake News Media to tell you the truth.
THE FAKE NEWS MEDIA WON’T PUBLICIZE THIS
You will not hear virtually anyone in the Fake News Media report on the fact VP Harris is polling well behind where Clinton and Biden polled in their races against former President Trump. That doesn’t fit their narrative that the race is a “dead heat.” The reason VP Harris wanted a second debate with former President Trump and the reason VP Harris is doing a Fox News interview is her campaign knows how bad these polls are (the Harris/Walz campaign internal polling is probably worse for her since many of the Fake News polls are “cooked” in her favor). Make no mistake, Harris, the Democrats and the Fake News Media know how poorly she is positioned for the final three weeks of the campaign.
TUNE OUT THE LEGACY MEDIA POLLING
For the next three weeks, my suggestion is to completely ignore the legacy media polling. (In fact, completely ignore the legacy media as well, but permanently, not just for the next three weeks.) Most of the Fake News Media polling will continue to be propaganda until the election. Some of the Fake News pollsters will start “reforming” their polls to display more accurate numbers to try to retain some semblance of credibility, but in many cases, the polling propaganda will get worse.
FOCUS ON THE GOOD POLLSTERS
If you want accurate, unbiased polling data stick with the firms which consistently perform the best. Here are a few you need to check out: Rich Baris and Big Data Polls, Trafalgar Group, and Atlas Intel. These pollsters are bringing you the best polling data they can and they are almost always on the money. There are a few more who work hard to be accurate and unbiased, but these are some of the top performers. Share these resources with your friends.
FOLLOW RICH BARIS AND WATCH HIS PODCAST
If you really want to stay well informed on polling, follow The People's Pundit, Rich Baris on social media. He is the best pollster in the business. Rich Baris does something virtually no one else in the polling industry does: he hosts his own podcast, Inside the Numbers, where he breaks down polling data and political news. On the podcast, Baris peels the onion back on how modern polling is done, how to be accurate and how and why so many in the industry are wrong. Virtually every episode is literally an education on polling and what is right and wrong about how it is being done today.
Baris and trial attorney Robert Barnes co-host another podcast called What Are the Odds? If you want a real deep dive into polling and electoral politics, be sure to check their show. Between Baris and his knowledge of polling, forecast modeling and politics and Barnes and his knowledge of political history, demographics and voting trends you will come away incredibly well educated on the issues.
DON’T GET OVERCONFIDENT
Do not let the current Presidential polling lull you into a state of overconfidence about former President Trump’s chances of winning the Presidential election this November. No matter what the polling data reflects, we all need to do everything we can to support Donald J. Trump. Donate to Trump’s campaign if you can. Volunteer to go door-to-door or to drive voters to the polls or to help in the campaign. Vote and make sure every Trump supporter you know votes. Leave no stone unturned. This election is that important and we simply cannot afford to lose.
(My new book Fake News Exposed: 25 of the Worst Media Lies about Conservatives, Guns, COVID and Everything Else is out at Amazon. You may also pick up a copy of one of my other books at Amazon as well.)